Following is the first in a series of position
reviews that will breakdown the depth chart at each level of the Indians
organization. Over the next several weeks, a different position will be reviewed
in each report that will eventually bring us to the start of spring training.
Keep in mind that it's early February and a lot can happen (injuries, trades,
good/poor performance, etc.) over the next two months that will shuffle players
up or down a projected level. This exercise is simply an early look at how each
position may look for opening day. Today, we put the first basemen under the
'scope.
CLEVELAND
"Travis Hafner and Ben Broussard will battle for the starting job this
spring in Winter Haven. Both are left-handed hitters who have shown the ability
to hit for average and power with good plate discipline in the minor leagues and
both are average (at best) with the glove."
That's what I wrote as the beginning sentence of last years review and the same
statement pretty much holds true again for 2004, although in retrospect, I
probably undervalued Broussard's glove a bit while being a bit generous toward
Hafner's. Both had their opportunities to seize the job for themselves last year
but neither Broussard (.249/.312/.443/.755, 16 HR) nor Hafner
(.254/.327/.485/.812, 14 HR) did anything to merit a secure job entering this
season. Hafner did have a strong second half (.273/.348/.519/.867, 10 HR) but
also struck out a Branyanesque 81 times in 291 ABs for the season and really
struggled against left-handers (.190 BA, 629 OPS). Broussard was even worse
against lefties (.175 BA, .522 OPS) leaving the door open for a right-handed
stick (Ryan Ludwick?, Lou Merloni?) to see playing time at first this season.
Terry Pluto reported last week in the ABJ that Eric Wedge will enter spring
training with plans to use Hafner as his designated hitter and Broussard as his
first basemen. That would certainly solve the puzzle of finding enough at-bats
for these two but, numbers wise, I'm anxious to see how they are going to make
this work on the roster. Since we discussed the numbers issue last week in
reviewing the Lou Merloni signing and we'll continue this discussion as we
review other positions, I won't get into this too in depth but take a look at
the roster below...
Pitchers (12): Assume 12 man staff as used in previous seasons.
Catchers (2): Victor Martinez, Josh Bard
Infielders (7): Travis Hafner, Ben Broussard, Ronnie Belliard, Omar Vizquel,
Casey Blake, John McDonald, Lou Merloni
Outfielders (6): Milton Bradley, Jody Gerut, Matt Lawton, Ryan Ludwick, Alex Escobar, Coco Crisp
Assuming a 12-man staff, that leaves room for 13 position players. Two spots
will go to Victor Martinez and Josh Bard. Four more will go to Hafner/Broussard
(whoever wins first base battle), Belliard, Vizquel, and Blake. One more will go
to either John McDonald or Lou Merloni. Three more will go to Bradley, Gerut,
and Lawton. One more goes to Escobar since he's out of options. That's 11 spots.
Ryan Ludwick should be number 12 since he's right-handed power and can platoon
at first when a tough lefty is on the mound. That leaves one spot remaining for
either Coco Crisp, the loser of the Hafner/Broussard battle, or the loser of the
McDonald/Merloni battle. Crisp has options remaining which makes it easy for him
to be a numbers victim. That would leave the final spot for a backup first
basemen (Hafner/Broussard) or a backup infielder (McDonald/Merloni). The former
gives you a better bat but doesn't provide much flexibility since both Hafner
and Broussard are lefties who can't hit lefties (i.e., no platoon advantage)
while the latter provides a weaker bat but more versatility for late-inning
manuevering. Certainly, injuries and trades (?) can and likely will impact the
above scenarios but if everyone stays healthy and no one is traded, someone
(Crisp?) is going to have make room for both Hafner and Broussard to head north
with the big league club.
So what happens if the Indians decide to keep only one? Spring performance will
dictate that choice but if the performance is close, don't forget that Broussard
has an option remaining and can always be sent to Buffalo to start the season.
Such a move would not surprise me, nor would a deal involving one of the two
towards the end of the spring. Once the choice is made, it may simply be best to
deal the other so the starter is not constantly looking over his shoulder.
Besides, with Michael Aubrey likely to further cloud/dominate the picture in
2005, moving one of these two in the right deal this spring might not be a bad
decision.
BUFFALO
While listed as an outfielder on the Bisons roster, Eric Crozier should continue
his steady climb through the Indians system and see the majority of time at
first base in Buffalo this season. After starting last spring with a bang,
blasting six homers in the first two weeks of camp, Crozier stayed hot to start
the season, homering in three straight games in early April and posting a 1.000+
OPS in the month of April for double-A Akron. His numbers began to tail off,
though, and an MRI eventually found that Crozier was playing with two hairline
fractures in his spine, which eventually led to a short stint on the disabled
list later in the summer. Despite the persistent back pain, Crozier posted the
best power numbers of his career with 19 homeruns although he sacrificed BA and
OBP (.245/.344/.455/.799) in order to do so. Baseball America ranked him as the
#14 first base prospect in the minor leagues in a mid-season poll and he is
generally regarded as above-average defensively although you have to think the
back may have an impact on his range in the field. He also has problems against
left-handed pitching. With Hafner and Broussard ahead of him and Michael Aubrey
coming fast, Crozier is likely playing to impress other organizations as much
(if not more so) as he is playing to impress the Indians brass. Kevin Orie
(shoulder surgery) will also likely see time at first base before making the
move across the diamond while Adam Piatt is another candidate for first base
at-bats.
AKRON
Depending on how he performs this spring, it would not surprise me to see last
years number one pick Michael Aubrey start the season in Akron. And even if the
Indians elect to be cautious in where they choose to start the sweet-swinging
lefty in his first full professional season and start him at Kinston, I don't
think it's going to be too long before we see Aubrey taking his cuts at Canal
Park. Compared to Todd Helton when drafted, Aubrey dominated South Atlantic
League pitching last season (.348/.409/.551/.960, 13 2B, 5 HR, in 138 ABs) in a
debut that was shortened due to a nagging quad injury. He is the Indians number
two position prospect (behind Grady Sizemore) and that ranking is only due to
the fact that he has just one half-season of professional experience. When he
does hit Akron, enjoy him while you can, because it will likely be a short stay
before he moves up to Buffalo and beyond.
Should Aubrey start the season in Kinston, Matt Knox appears to be the likely
candidate to begin 2004 as the Aeros first basemen. He hit a combined
.246/.297/.413/710 with 27 doubles and 14 homeruns last year for Kinston and
Lake County. Trey Dyson, acquired from the Royals in the Brian Anderson deal,
may also fit into the mix at first if the Indians decide to move him from the
outfield. Dyson hit .364 (8-22) with a homer in his short stint in the Indians
organization and .279/.373/.440 with 32 doubles and 15 homeruns overall. He also
showed a decent eye at the plate (66 W, 98 K).
KINSTON
If not Michael Aubrey, first base will likely belong to one of Matt Knox or big
Bill Peavey or a combination of both. Peavey (11th round pick in 2002) was
bothered by a bulging disc last year and hit a combined .240/.350/.369/.719 with
6 homeruns at Kinston and Lake County after returning midseason. For a guy his
size (6'4", 250) he showed an impressive eye at the plate (37 W in 217 ABs)
but did not demonstrate the power (.369 SLG) you would naturally expect,
although I'm sure the back had something to do with that. Drafted as a college
senior, Peavey is already 25 years old which makes me wonder if the Indians will
push him to Akron despite Peavey having only 140 ABs at the high-A level.
Needless to say, this is a very important year for the big fella. Brian Kirby
(.195, 61 K in 164 AB) and Rick Elder (.221, 55 K in 136 AB) may also receive
some first-base at-bats if they're still with the organization once the regular
season starts.
Let me also mention, without getting into too many details, that the Indians
have a lot of infielders who would appear to be candidates to start the season
at Kinston. The only problem is that there may not be enough positions to go
around. Moving one (or some) of them to first base may be a viable option to
ensure they all receive enough at-bats. We'll get into this more as we move
around the horn. Catcher Ryan Garko also falls into this mix if the Tribe
decides to move him out from behind the dish.
LAKE COUNTY
Ryan Mulhern (11th round, '03) showed good power last year in the Valley (.463
SLG, 25 2B, 5 HR) but also struck out a ton (68 K, 19 W, 229 AB). As a college
senior, I suppose it's possible he could skip low-A and head right to Kinston
but he falls into that mix of "too many players, not enough positions"
and he seems the likely candidate to start the year in Eastlake. Joining him may
be 2002 4th round pick Fernando Pacheco who has not done much
(.208/.272/.328/.600, 60 K, 183 ABs last year) despite being labeled as a pure
hitter during the draft. While it's probably a year too early to place the bust
tag on him, it's not early to say he has been a major disappointment thus far.
Since he's still very young (won't turn 20 until October), the Indians can
afford to be patient with Pacheco but he needs to show signs of life soon.
Domingo Vasquez, who can also play third, has spent the last years in Burlington
with Pacheco and may make the move to Lake County if he remains with the
organization past spring training.
SHORT SEASON
Given the above statement, Pacheco could return to short-season ball for a third
consecutive year, although he would likely report to Mahoning Valley instead of
Burlington as he has done the previous two summers.
OVERALL
The Indians don't have a lot of depth at first-base so it's hard to call this
position an organizational strength. If Michael Aubrey develops as hoped,
however, that discussion will be moot. Ben Broussard and Travis Hafner also
offer hope for an impact major league bat and this will likely shape up as a
make-or-break season for both of them (at least in an Indians uniform). Beyond
those three, however, none of the remaining first basemen in the system project
as major leaguers although, if healthy, Eric Crozier may turn out to be a late
bloomer if his power continues to develop. As discussed above, don't be
surprised if the Indians move a player (or two) over to first base this season
and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians make another Mulhern-type
selection in the draft in June.
Next report: Second Base review