2008 Preview: San Diego Padres

Arizona and Colorado both eclipsed the Padres in 2007 -- the Rockies in the 13th inning of a one-game playoff for the wild-card berth -- with younger and homegrown teams that figure to improve. The Padres want to follow such a plan, but the crop in their farm system is not quite ready to be harvested so a few retread veterans may have to help San Diego try to regain top billing in the NL West.

Chase Headley, 23, the Player of the Year in the Texas League last season with a .330 average and 20 homers and 78 RBIs in 433 at-bats as a third baseman, is making a bid to be the Padres' starting left fielder.
"The ball jumps off his bat," said Padres manager Bud Black, the former Indians pitcher.
Headley's competition includes holdover Scott Hairston, former Indians outfielder Jody Gerut, veteran Jeff DaVanon, perennial Padres prospect Paul McAnulty and former Florida first-round draft pick Chip Ambres.
At least two will make the Opening Day roster, although Headley probably would open the season with Class AAA Portland if he doesn't win the regular job in left.
The other four candidates can also play center -- an important consideration for the Padres given that veteran Jim Edmonds has seen his playing time decrease each of the past three seasons.
Gerut, 30, has had his once-promising career interrupted by serious injuries. He hasn't played regularly in the majors for three seasons due to knee problems, but has also looked good in early spring drills after hitting .390 with Oriente in the Venezuelan winter league.
He has a .263 batting average and 34 homers in 1,131 career at-bats in the majors and is a left-handed hitter seeking a job on a club already leaning to the left in a ballpark that disfavors left-handed hitters. As a rookie with Cleveland in 2003, Gerut hit .279 with 22 homers and 33 doubles in 480 at-bats.
ARRIVALS: RHP Mauro Zarate (waivers from Marlins), INF Luis Rodriguez (waivers from Twins), 2B Tadahito Iguchi (free agent from Phillies), CF Jim Edmonds (trade with Cardinals), OF Jody Gerut (free agent), UT Robert Fick (free agent from Nationals), OF Jeff DaVanon (free agent from Athletics), RHP Mark Prior (free agent from Cubs), LHP Randy Wolf (free agent from Dodgers), LHP Glendon Rusch (free agent from Mets), RHP Enrique Gonzalez (waivers from Nationals), INF/OF Callix Crabbe (Rule 5 draft pick from Brewers), INF Edgar Gonzalez (free agent from Cardinals), 1B Tony Clark (free agent from Diamondbacks). DEPARTURES: CF Mike Cameron (free agent to Brewers), 2B Marcus Giles (released, signed with Rockies), INF Geoff Blum and RHPs Jack Cassel and Doug Brocail (free agents to Astros), LF Milton Bradley (free agent to Rangers), OF Brady Clark (released, with Mets), INF Morgan Ensberg and OF Jason Lane (free agents to Yankees), RHP Brett Tomko (free agent to Royals), OF Rob Mackowiak (released, signed with Nationals), OF Terrmel Sledge (sold to Japan's Nippon Ham Fighters).
PROJECTED ROTATION:
1. RHP Jake Peavy
2. RHP Chris Young
3. RHP Greg Maddux
4. LHP Randy Wolf
5. RHP Mark Prior
Led by unanimous Cy Young Award winner Peavy, it's a solid rotation if everyone is healthy. But both Wolf and Prior are coming off surgery, and Prior isn't scheduled to be ready before May, although the Padres are optimistic given the early throwing rehab program on Prior's post-surgery shoulder. Young (9-8, 3.12 ERA) has been spectacular at times and was 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA at the All-Star break last season. But the 6-foot-10 pitcher also concluded his first two seasons with the Padres with lower back problems. Maddux turns 42 in April, but he was still a 14-game winner in his Padres debut in 2007. Which brings us to Peavy, who led the major leagues with a 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts last season and paced the National League with 19 wins. Until Prior is healthy, the Padres could use LHP Shawn Estes (out all of 2007 following 2006 elbow reconstruction surgery), RHP Justin Germano (7-10 with a 4.46 ERA with the Padres last year), LHP Glendon Rusch or recently acquired RHP Enrique Gonzalez as their No. 5 starter. Given the medical history of Prior, Wolf and Young, the Padres will need at least two other starters waiting in the wings.
PROJECTED BULLPEN:
RHP Trevor Hoffman (closer)
RHP Heath Bell
RHP Cla Meredith
RHP Clay Hensley
RHP Kevin Cameron
LHP Joe Thatcher
LHP Justin Hampson
LHP Glendon Rusch
The bullpen was been the Padres' forte since they moved into Petco Park. The big question could be Hoffman (4-5, 2.98 ERA, 42 saves) and how he will rebound from his two blown saves in the Padres' final three games of 2007. Converting either save would have given the Padres a playoff berth. Hoffman's strength in the past has been his ability to bounce back from that rare blown save. But the game's all-time saves leader is also 41. Will there still be that necessary 10 mph difference between his fading fastball and changeup?
Bell (6-4, 2.02 ERA, 102 strikeouts in 93 2/3 innings over 81 appearances) had a breakthrough season as the setup man last year, and many believe he's the Padres' closer of the future. Behind him are a corps that gives hitters a lot of different looks from Meredith (5-6, 3.50 ERA in 80 games) with his near-submarine delivery to Thatcher (2-2, 1.29 ERA in 22 games) and his sidearm action. Cameron (2-0, 2.79 ERA in 48 games) was a Rule 5 find last year. Hensley and Rusch could also serve as spot starters, which given the health history of the starters could be a major factor. The Padres will again go with a seven-man bullpen.
PROJECTED LINEUP:
1. RF Brian Giles
2. 2B Tadahito Iguchi
3. CF Jim Edmonds
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
5. SS Khalil Greene
6. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
7. LF Scott Hairston
8. C Josh Bard
This is not a fast team. Last year, the Padres stole 55 bases. Giles is the best prospect to lead off, although he is coming off microfracture knee surgery. Iguchi does give the Padres a proven No. 2 hitter. Edmonds could slip in the order if his production again slips, as it has each of the past three seasons.
At Nos. 4-6, the Padres are a lot better than believed. Gonzalez and Greene combined to hit 90 doubles and 57 homers and drive in 197 runs last season. And Kouzmanoff hit .309 with 17 homers and 70 RBIs in the final 118 games after getting off to a 9-for-83 start. Hairston could be pressed by rookie prospect Chase Headley in left. Bard hit .406 with runners in scoring position last season.
PROJECTED RESERVES:
C Michael Barrett
INF/OF Callix Crabbe
INF Edgar Gonzalez
INF Craig Stansberry
INF Oscar Robles
OF Paul McAnulty
At the moment, the Padres' bench appears much weaker than it has been in recent seasons. But the Padres are likely to add at least one big right-handed bat, with the leading candidates being free agent Tony Clark (a switch hitter). He would also serve as the backup for Adrian Gonzalez at first to give him a rest against some tough left-handed pitchers. And should Chase Headley win the left field job, Hairston would become a super sub, playing all three outfield positions as a regular.
TOP ROOKIES:
The Padres have three rookies who could make the opening day lineup -- Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli and LHP Wade Leblanc -- although the latter two, at least, will likely open the season with Class AAA Portland. Headley, the Texas League Player of the Year in 2007 (.330, 20 homers, 78 RBIs) as a third baseman, will get a shot at being the Padres' regular left fielder. Antonelli, the Padres' first-round draft pick in 2006, is also being converted from an infielder and is being prepped as the Padres' possible center fielder of the future. Like Antonelli, Leblanc moved from Class A Lake Elsinore to Class AA San Antonio last year.
MEDICAL WATCH: RF Brian Giles (microfracture knee surgery in October 2007) is listed as doubtful for Opening Day, although he says he'll be ready. He is ahead of his rehab schedule and plans to play at least the final 10 days of the exhibition season. … RHP Clay Hensley (right labrum surgery in September 2007) was the only Padres pitcher not throwing off a mound at the start of spring training. … LHP Shawn Estes (elbow reconstruction surgery in June 2006) was throwing without pain from the mound in late February and could see action early in Grapefruit League play. He said the pain he experienced last summer when he was trying to come back is gone. …RHP Mark Prior (right shoulder surgery in April 2007) was on a limited throwing program early in spring training, although he was ahead of schedule. He hopes to join the Padres rotation by mid-May, but the club is still taking a conservative approach. … LHP Randy Wolf (left shoulder surgery in September 2007) remained on a rehab schedule early in spring training.